Fundamental analysis can be defined as the macro or strategic assessment of where a currency should be trading based on the movement of the currency's price itself.This is often highly dependent on the economic condition of the country of that currency, monetary policy, and other "fundamental" elements.The analysis is performed on historical and present data, but the objective is to predict the future trend.
Economy condition reflects how the country is attractive for foreign investments and capital inflow. In general it can be said that the better the macro economic indicators – the stronger the domestic currency is.
According to Fundamental analysis, the markets may misprice in the short run but the "correct" price will eventually be reached. Profits can be made by trading the mispriced and then wait for the market to recognize its "mistake" and reprice the security.
Traders may use fundamental analysis within different portfolio management styles. Buy and hold traders find out 'good' buys from the past trend which can lower their risk and probability of wipe-out. In fundamental analysis you make your own decision rather than going by the apparent movement of the market.
Analyzing Economics and Macro Forex FactorsWith fundamental analysis, one can find out if the prices in the market are undervalued, overvalued, or working in a fair value by applying the concept of intrinsic value as the market price tends to move towards its intrinsic value. If the intrinsic value is above the current market price, the investor would purchase the currency and if it is below, the investor would sell it from the portfolio or take a short position.
A top-down trader starts the analysis with global economics, including both international and national economic indicators, such as GDP growth rates, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, productivity, and energy prices. The bottom-up investor starts with specific currency pair, regardless of their current position.
So we come to the conclusion that as a trader in Fundamental analysis market one would require to take help of Fundamental analysis along with Technical Analysis methods to maximize the gain by correctly recognizing the market trends.
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